By John Romano, Times Sports Columnist
In Print: Friday, September 11, 2009
TAMPA
The decision to change placekickers at One Buc Place can be defended in any number of ways. For instance, Mike Nugent is younger and, conceivably, has a higher upside than Matt Bryant. Nugent also has had more recent success than Bryant on field goals beyond 40 yards. And quite simply, Nugent was the healthy one when decisions were being made in training camp. So for now, Buccaneers coaches have no problem justifying their choice to release Bryant in favor of Nugent. But the final evaluation is still to come.
It could be on Sunday against Dallas, or it might not arrive for several months. It could happen at home, on the road or across the Atlantic. The timing is impossible to predict, and the exact details are not really relevant.
But somewhere along the line, the score will be close and the hour will be late. The Bucs will need a field goal in the final seconds of a game, and they will turn to Nugent and ask him to deliver a victory.
And that’s when you will know if the Bucs made the right decision.
Until then, everything else is extraneous. You can wonder whether the Bucs were leaning toward this decision all along. You can debate the decision to bring in Nugent armed with such a large contract. You can argue whether the Bucs owed Bryant a little more loyalty.
Yet in the end, all of the hand-wringing will come back to the same basic point:
Bryant was one of the most clutch placekickers in the NFL in recent seasons, and that means Nugent has no room for error.
“I’m sure there’s risk in any move like this,” said special teams coach Richard Bisaccia. “We’ve let some players go around here who have made a lot of plays in crucial situations. Matt certainly fits in that same category. We may have a little bit of the unknown now, but Mike has certainly made some critical kicks for the Jets and in college.
“I told Matt when he left here that he’s going to go down as one of the greatest kickers in the history of this franchise. … So he needs to hold his head high. He won a lot of ball games for us. We’ve just kind of moved in a different direction, and we’ll have high expectations for Mike.”
The popular perception throughout training camp was that Bryant, 34, is a more reliable kicker and Nugent, 27, has the bigger leg. The truth is their performances are much closer than their reputations would have you believe.
Since 2005 — when Bryant signed with the Bucs and Nugent was a rookie with the Jets — their field-goal percentages are practically interchangeable. Nugent was slightly better from 40 yards and beyond (64.5 percent to 62.2 percent), and Bryant was more consistent from 39 yards and in (95.8 percent to 90.1 percent). In other words, Nugent makes about one extra 40-plus field goal every couple of years, and Bryant makes one extra short field goal every season or so.
And despite the perception of Nugent having the stronger leg, Bryant has averaged slightly more touchbacks and about 1.6 yards extra on kickoffs since 2005.
So basically, history says there will be little variation between Bryant and Nugent throughout the course of 16 games. Which means the most critical factor could be performance with the game on the line. And in that category, few have been more reliable than Bryant.
Bryant has kicked eight tying or winning field goals in the final two minutes of regulation or overtime during his four seasons with the Bucs and has missed only one such kick. And for a guy who has struggled on longer kicks, Bryant has hit 41-, 43-, 45- and 62-yard winners.
Nugent was similarly impressive under pressure, hitting 6 of 7 winners in his three seasons with the Jets, although most of his were chip shots. He connected on only one winner of more than 40 yards.
“Matt did a great job in those situations, absolutely,” Nugent said. “If you ask what I think I can bring, my biggest thing is being dependable. When I go out on the field, I want everyone in their mind to be expecting three points. That’s the biggest thing a kicker can bring; that everyone on the field is already expecting this kick to go in and we’re ready to move on to the kickoff. I want my team to always be able to count on me.”
It’s not as if the Bucs made this decision without consideration. Nugent is among the most attractive kickers to enter the NFL in the last decade, and Bisaccia has been enamored with his power and classic style since seeing him at the Senior Bowl four years ago.
The Jets used a second-round pick on him in ’05, and he gave them three solid seasons before a quads injury in last season’s opener essentially ended his time in New York. With his rookie contract expired, Nugent was a free agent, and the Bucs were willing to pay dearly to lure him to Tampa Bay. His $2 million base salary is second highest among placekickers, according to figures from the NFL Players Association.
“It was time for a change at that position, and we made it,” coach Raheem Morris said. “And Matt Bryant, I wish him nothing but the best; him and his family. We’re actually pretty tight, believe it or not. But we’ve moved on. We’ve got Mike Nugent.”
One of these days, in the final minutes of a game, we’ll figure out if the Bucs were right about that.
John Romano can be reached at romano@sptimes.com. For more from Romano, check out blogs.tampabay.com/pointafter
